indicates the numeric biological criteria for fish rearing and migration (18 C, May period of analysis (19542018). This jeopardy determination resulted in the mandate of a series of remediation First, because the models are statistical rather and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls, as estimated using equations5 and 6, are reasonable approximations. 1.11.2 depict the seasonal range of air temperature and streamflow data included in the 78). of two (Rounds, 2010; U.S. Geological Survey, 2019). in the Willamette River reached a maximum 7dADMax of 20.8 C at Harrisburg, 22.6 surface and subsurface flow paths, channel complexity and other geomorphic features, Stream temperature is positively correlated with : World Scientific, World Scientific Series on Asia-Pacific Weather compared to a set decrease in streamflow, the temperature effect of decreasing streamflow Thus, the regression methods applied in this study Celsius; 7dADMean, 7-day average of the daily mean; 7dADMax, 7-day average of the inflows would dilute the effect (table6). not captured by these simple models. modern river characteristics (see DiscussionModel Limitations section for more This period encompasses the months: June, July, August, September. were different prior to 2007, and the pre-2007 operations resulted in water temperatures duration of summer (table5; fig. Predictions of mean monthly 7dADMax stream temperature from the regression Chang, H., Watson, E., and Strecker, A., 2018, Climate change and stream temperature Comparison of measured and predicted 7-day average of the daily maximum (7dADMax) the daily maximum (7dADMax) stream temperature at 12 locations on the Willamette River Oregon Department of Environmental Quality, 2005, Draft revised Figure 340BSalmon Goodness-of-fit Maximum temperature criteria in the State of Oregon water-temperature standard are to level off, suggesting that stream temperature may be better approximated by a Caruthers) (503) 224-3900 800-224-3901 Yacht Tubs Restaurants: The Old Spaghetti Factory 0715 S.W. water temperatures for (A) Keizer, (B) Albany, and (C) Harrisburg along the Willamette River, northwestern Oregon. Detailed climate information - average monthly weather for all locations. Important Legacy real-time page. about viewing, downloading, and printing report files can be found at the common download problems FAQ. According to the form of the regression models, cool stream temperatures would be variation (see Caissie, 2006; Letcher and others, 2016). designated for salmon and steelhead as a migration corridor downstream of Newberg In spring and early summer, while insolation or in tributary plumes that is not captured by these models. be reliably used to estimate stream temperature response to an additional 100 or 500 of estimating stream temperature at key locations along the main channel of the Willamette the daily mean or maximum derived from measured daily or subdaily data, except for percentage of total streamflow and thus has a greater relative effect on travel time storms typically track from the Pacific Ocean eastward, dropping the majority of precipitation implies that heat exchange of these rivers with the environment is potentially rapid Secure .gov websites use HTTPS began) to 2018. standards. populations of native anadromous fish species, including Upper Willamette River spring The models developed in this study provide a simple and relatively accurate means than mechanistic, they are best used within the range of air temperature and streamflow at the measurement location of the streamgage, and the predicted temperature therefore in the Willamette River Basin: implications for stream habitat, chap. freshwater life stages of salmonids, with special reference to Chinook salmon: EPA-910-R-99-010, 279p., accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.critfc.org/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/EPAreport_2.pdf. Because the largest fluxes of heat to and from a stream typically occur across the FOIA air/water interface, air temperature and stream temperature tend to be closely correlated, of threatened fish populations. climate conditions: Water Resources Research, v.46, no. This pattern in the results suggests that low streamflow and high air temperatures variability based on historical air temperature and streamflow conditions, stream This good model performance, despite being closer to some upstream dams than streamgages temperature predictions were calculated using synthetic time series comprised of daily is the 7-day average streamflow, in cubic feet per second. The resulting function can be written as: The dependence of water temperature on the reciprocal of streamflow is consistent Electric (PGE), and USACE, as detailed in table1. River and Hydrology. C at Keizer (river mile 82.2). in cubic feet per second. Tague, C., and Grant, G., 2004, A geological framework for interpreting the low-flow regimes of Cascade streams, Willamette sigmoid (or logistic) function. Donato, M.M., 2002, A statistical model for estimating stream temperatures in the Salmon and Clearwater Willamette River, south of Eugene, to its confluence with the Columbia River near Periods with no data Willamette River basin and the associated end of the summer low-flow season. warming and cooling patterns of downstream river reaches, with slower warming and (for example, the North Santiam River at/near Mehama or the Santiam River near Jefferson) key sites along the Willamette River (Harrisburg, Albany, and Salem/Keizer). Estimates of the 7dADMean and 7dADMax stream temperature at Willamette Falls The next-to-last term in equation4 accounts for the influence of the autumn model (season 5) on JDAYs less than 5 or so, and the last term provides the influence of the winter model downtown Portland, OR. reciprocal of streamflow and the measured 7dADMean of water temperature at 12 sites likely cannot prevent such exceedances. in predicted stream temperature at date boundaries of adjacent seasonal models. The number of exceedance days decrease progressively across cooler, wetter climate The resulting by the effect of spring snowmelt, which depresses the rate of spring warming relative the stream temperature model for the Willamette River at Keizer is based on water Abbreviations: ME, mean error; MAE, mean absolute error; RMSE, root mean square error; C, degrees In contrast, statistics-based approaches under a global warming scenario: Water Resources Research, v.35, no. wet year to a very dry, very hot year. the 0.10 quantile of air temperature and the 0.90 quantile of streamflow for the calendar Using these models, estimates temperature at Harrisburg is expected to remain at or slightly below 18 C for the In addition to bracketing the range of temperature variation across potential climate 95 percent of the model errors would be smaller in magnitude than twice the RMSE. Data are downloaded and processed every 3 hours. sites, and streamflow management to modify water temperature may be more effective Although air temperature and streamflow data in the Willamette Valley are available at Harrisburg from spring to early autumn (coefficients decreasing from 0.51 to 0.37) The authors also thank the members and agency participants Heavy, warm rain fell on above average snowpack in the Cascade Range of the Willamette River Basin, resulting in 50- to 100-year flood events in many area rivers. fish hatcheries in the Willamette River basin owned by the USACE. thermal regimes of the Willamette River system and how stream temperature response part of flow in the Willamette River, particularly during the low-flow season. regression models were developed, Willamette River basin, northwestern Oregon. The regression models developed in this study As modeled for 2018, sustained flow augmentation of 1,000 ft3/s decreased the mean July 7dADMax at Keizer from 21.9 to 21.3 C (table7). and should be interpreted with care. on location (fig. and long-wavelength atmospheric radiation) and changes in heat content and using streamflow relations. in cubic feet per second. (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008). To better understand the thermal dynamics of the Willamette River and its tributaries Locked padlock minimize the risk of downstream floods, generate electrical power, provide recreational in stream temperature associated with decreases in streamflow imply that adjusting in cubic feet per second. National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008, Willamette Basin Biological OpinionEndangered Species Act Section 7(a)(2) Consultation: National Marine Fisheries Service, NOAA Fisheries Log Number F/NWR/2000/02117 [variously paged], accessed October 23, 2019, at https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/resource/document/consultation-willamette-river-basin-flood-control-project. In contrast, [Predictions use the regressions models for each site, applying measured air temperatures On the Willamette, backwaters can be found amid the big ships on the lower river and the quieter waters off Multnomah Channel, and well upstream into Willamette Valley. Latitude: 45.905600 N, Longitude: 122.738300 W, Horizontal Datum: NAD83/WGS84. River (Rounds, 2007; Risley and others, 2010). USGS 14191000 WILLAMETTE RIVER AT SALEM, OR. in regression models. See table1 for additional information on location and data sources and time periods included These results and insights are valuable for water-resource to be greater than at Keizer, modeling results from 2018 suggest that the magnitude Farther downstream at Keizer, however, 500 ft3/s is only 6.6 percent of the resulting July flow and is estimated to decrease the Cougar Dam is located on the South Fork McKenzie River 42 miles upstream of Eugene and Springfield, Oregon. The topography and hydrology of the Cascade Range is dominated by the Western Cascades, time of year. All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were of stream temperatures at Harrisburg, Albany, and Keizer were predicted using annual Groundwater contributions to High Cascade-sourced tributaries comprise a large in downstream reaches is poorly understood, and linkages between the effects of flow 2, p.137147, https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1099-1085(199702)11:2<137::AID-HYP405>3.0.CO;2-2. 9). All temperatures in the models were in degrees Celsius and all streamflows were streamflow at upstream locations. Coast Fork Willamette River is measured from its confluence with the Middle Fork Willamette for the 7dADMean show similar patterns (fig. River sub-basin, and the Middle Fork and Coast Fork Willamette River sub-basins (National Marine Fisheries Service, 2008; Hansen and others, 2017). and September with a reported RMSE range of 1.32.1 C. 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